Forecasts Method Tournament
Live Consensus + AI Signal Fusion

Forecast what happens next before the world catches up.

Vidhata combines calibrated human judgment, historical pattern memory, and machine reasoning to produce evolving probabilities on the outcomes shaping economics, technology, and geopolitics.

Live Probability Surface

Questions update continuously as new information appears and forecasters revise with evidence.

Network Health

91,842 Active forecasters
8.3M Forecast updates scored
0.11 Collective Brier score (lower is better)

How Vidhata Works

Every question receives forecasts from verified participants, weighted by calibration quality, then stress-tested by AI against scenario trees and historical analogs.

1. Forecast

Users assign probabilities to time-bound real-world outcomes.

2. Score

Predictions are tracked with strict resolution criteria and outcome data.

3. Explain

AI highlights moving variables, causal assumptions, and uncertainty drivers.

4. Compete

Top forecasters rise on the global leaderboard and shape consensus.